For those of you who purchased TRS at $3.50-$4+ and are considering selling because TRS has had a good run, here is some food for thought:
- I'm assuming TRS meets H1 guidance and breaks even in H2 (both reasonable assumptions at this point). This should mean EBITDA of ~$44m for the FY, and NPAT of about $17m ($44m-$20 (D&A) - Tax $7m).
- The average EV/EBITDA multiple for TRS over the 6 year period ending Dec 2016 was 7.8x. A return to this level would equate to a share price of ~$12;
- The average P/E multiple over the same period was 17.6x. A return to that P/E would mean a share price of $10.30
The above is not particularly optimistic and more of a base case (assuming H1 is achieved) because:
- Early H1 was relatively weak and we are only assuming breakeven for the second half. Accordingly, there is significant earnings upside if they can continue to execute well;
- The multiple's mentioned above are just average levels over the 6 year period. The peak valuations were significantly higher and could be achievable if the market begins to believe TRS can continue to grow. (I can easily get valuations closer to $20 or more in a range of scenarios)
So although TRS has had a good run, if the H1 result meets guidance and the market turns its focus from a company trying to stave off bankruptcy to one with a solid position and good growth outlook, the share price could easily double from current levels in the next 12 months. So lets hope for a good H1 result ;-)
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Last
$6.69 |
Change
0.010(0.15%) |
Mkt cap ! $249.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.68 | $6.69 | $6.68 | $444.3K | 66.48K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
18 | 34640 | $6.68 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$6.69 | 62489 | 13 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
19 | 34662 | 6.680 |
15 | 62102 | 6.670 |
4 | 10576 | 6.660 |
1 | 10000 | 6.650 |
4 | 41775 | 6.640 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.690 | 62489 | 13 |
6.700 | 293650 | 6 |
6.720 | 3075 | 4 |
6.750 | 2918 | 1 |
6.850 | 1987 | 1 |
Last trade - 13.00pm 01/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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