Hard to see how they can reverse this terrible sp performance from here. They will certainly have their work cut out if momentum is now shifting to financials and out of materials and energy. Market/sector sentiment cannot be ignored. a lowly pe of 5 means nothing. Not sure what the market was afraid of or what they expect. Are they waiting for the hedge position to expire, reduce more debt? what?
If the new reserve statements don't move them , then it will be time to move on. Wonder how the speculator from money is feeling now about his prediction? Tad nervous i would say. Interesting read I have posted from BHP thread this morning. Thanks for that.
From Marcus Padley this morning:
If you look around the resources sector at the moment you will find a host of target prices well in excess of the share prices, especially after the recent falls. If you believe all the research there is fundamental value there. But anyone who has bought into the recent falls will tell you, you can’t hold back the tide. The sentiment towards iron ore stocks, nickel stocks and zinc stocks has peaked and no one is making money by catching the knife and there is talk that the shorting focus has moved from financials to mid cap resources, illiquid stocks where shorters get bang for their buck. How else do you explain some of these falls.
As with the financials the game now is to catch the sentiment turns in iron ore, nickel and zinc. After recent falls there is a big short term turn to be made. But as with the financials, you don’t buy on the way down, you just keep awake for the day sentiment changes. It looked like it had yesterday (FMG up 12.4%, GBG up 13.8%, SDL up 43%, FMS up 11%, KZL up 18%, BHP up 4.2%) and there are some signs of a follow through today (Oxiana up 5%, BHP up 1.8%, JML up 16%, MRE up 5.4%, WSA up 11.0%, MGX up 14.5%, BOC up 13.8%). For some that will be enough to have a nibble. With the whole trading world waiting for the trigger to buy a price rise is the only thing to trust, not some broker quoting you a PE of 5.7x. No one gives two hoots about the numbers until the momentum changes…then the numbers will help fuel the fire.
Hard to see how they can reverse this terrible sp performance...
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