whirlpool is an Australian intent Forum specialising in IT & Communications technology.
These 30.10.22 comments on Whirlpool, re the Optus hack, are interesting.News report this morning states 10% of Optus customers have left and more than 50% are considering leaving.
And how many won't return as there are a lot that aren't current customers including yours truly.
Maybe I would still consider one of their MVNO but it can't be owned by Optus.
News report this morning states 10% of Optus customers have left and more than 50% are considering leaving.
Which translates to the 10% who will leave have left, and of the 50% who are considering leaving when their contract up, 80% to 90% of those probably will have forgotten about it by the time the contract is up, so their net loss will probably be around 15% to 20%. Tops.
Which is roughly in line with the 15% to 20% loss in market cap for Medibank.
News report this morning states 10% of Optus customers have left and more than 50% are considering leaving.
If 10% have left, based on just the mobile postpaid segment of about 10M, a 10% reduction is 1M with an average ARPU of $40.
That is a reduction in revenue of $480M over 12 months, and that is just mobile postpaid, even more once NBN home internet is considered.
even more once NBN home internet is considered.
That may not hurt too much, not a huge profit with NBN.
The MNO portion of the business is massive loss, not sure if the majority would be the pre-paid or not as it's easier to port without worrying about bail out cost.
Would have to read the agreements but would not surprise as they have separated the handset from network that you could still pay out monthly for the handset and transfer the network over. The issue is you still feel like your a customer unless you pay the handset out.
Believe they have done that for the coverage/network issues they give you a get out without terminating the contracts.
But I have not read the contracts as I'm not in one as work pays for my phone and personal is a cheap phone on a MVNO. Not that I use it much.
Edit:
Morgan Stanley has Telstra as the front runner for Optus churn in their investor briefings:
Following cyber attack woes at Optus, Morgan Stanley believes Telstra has received an unexpected tailwind, which will assist mobile subscriber growth over the next 1-3 years.
The analyst estimates every 5% of Optus subscription churn would add 400-500k subscribers, and revenue of between $200-250m for Telstra. This would be expected to translate to 14-30c/share in value.
https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/3z4yl2qw-13
The comment that Medibank (MPL) has lost 15-20% of its MC, after it was also severely hacked 2 weeks ago, is very valid comparison. It indicates the market believes the fear/ reputational etc. damage to the Medibank brand will directly impact profits (ie many customers will leave).
If correct, TLS can expect to obtain a significant increase in customers, who are now very averse to Optus- with direct benefits for the TLS SP
whirlpool is an Australian intent Forum specialising in IT &...
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