In reply to Benson
thanks for posting an interesting discussion. Always good to have alternate views - so for what it is worth, here is another alternate view.
If as you say, 5g is a game changer, then, it is likely that the game will, well, “change”. So perhaps it’s best to stop looking at the past and instead look to the future.
5g will be like a “gold rush”. Heaps of companies will look to use it in an attempt to “strike gold”. Some will. Most won’t. But just like the gold miners in the gold rushes needed shovels, companies that look to make money out of 5g will need 5g. And Telstra has the most, and the best, 5g in Australia.
In gold rushes, some miners made money but overall the most money was made by those selling the picks and shovels.
Saying that “everything” is in a bad trend might be overly pessimistic. Costs are reducing, infraco is ready to be demerged, Telstras 5g is better than other telcos, nbn headwinds are all but gone, 5g handsets (Apple) will soon be released and push 5g, COVID effects will dissipate at some stage, infraco has been established - these are some positives at least. And losing market share (rather than customers which are still increasing) may not be a bad thing if they are low margin customers.
Your analogy with the banks is an interesting one and your view that the banks had little control over their future is perhaps at odds with the outcome of the Royal Commission. If Telstra has been mismanaged, then management of the banks have been an utter disaster. Nevertheless, like Telstra I have held the banks for decades and over that time they have been a reasonable investment, not my best but far from my worst performers.
If you are a holder of Telstra, then a decision to sell Telstra precipitates another decision. What do you do with the proceeds? Keep it in the bank earning 1% in a term deposit?
The real question for investors not holding Telstra is “if not Telstra, then what shares(if any) to buy”?
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