All IMHO - DYOR
1) Longer term loyal investors are most likely those who elected for share certificates. Only just sent out on the day a crappy Q report released. Two months after listing (I'm still waiting). There may be a case for the company to answer if shareholders were prevented from bailing out earlier.
2) As per JP Morgan report some investors knew about problems with Gulf Oil Production preferentially. I might be wrong, however it seems the problems with the gulf oil to have been the case even while still listed on ASX. Despite SGX listing, LNC still obliged to comply with ASIC rules for continuous disclosure. I would like to hear PB's excuse for this disaster to not be market sensitive. I for one would have left whilst still on the ASX.
3) Around 500 mil from coal sale less dividend has been frittered away on non-core projects that have consumed massive amounts of money and now turned a massive cash surplus into a big debt that shows no sign of shrinking.
4) I always thought Arkaringa was a big beat up. Whilst there certainly may be lots of things in that very large acreage, I fail to see how a few holes over a massive area can be extrapolated into anything like that depicted in the report - no matter how reputable the parties preparing the report are. The divisional president is no more, and no further funds should be spent on this project apart from that required to keep the leases alive. This is a backburner project for Linc (if it survives) when it has substantive cash flow and can further Ark with the loose change.
5) I am sure that there is oil in Umiat. It is also insanity for a small and undercapitalised company to take on such a difficult and massive project. Considering the stuff up last year, one has to question the expertise of the participants. This year, warm weather in Alaska (cf restof USA) has already been problematic. Much can go wrong and I will be flabergasted if we get a flow of oil to justify all the expense. PB's failure to provide timely updates gives me no confidence. Last year oil flow at Umiat was announced with great fanfare - and then nothing, despite the fact that it stopped flowing shortly after.
6) We are carrying ++++++ oil and gas assets. My problem is that I have great difficulty believing this is a realisable amount. a) if Umiat fluffs this year, there will not be any funds to try again and Linc will be lucky to get anything for it - all they will have done is prove how difficult it is to access this oil and how expensive. Should someone else be interested they could just wait until the leases lapse. Umiat is a very big pocket job. b) Gulf oil is producing - problem is the amount that has to be invested to keep it flowing. All the time there are diminishing reserves. After the original decision to purchase the Gulf Assets Linc subsequently tried to terminate the deal - guess legal advice was that they were stuck with it. Unless they are very lucky (and they could be very unlucky) this project will just keep paying for itself and little else apart from providing jobs until it just runs out of oil. Hard to see how anyone else would want such an asset - bit like a sailing boat - hole in water/ground that you just keep pouring money into. Best to try and find another mug to take this off our hands and try and reduce the debt.
8) Wyoming coal leases originally bought for UCG. Somewhere along the line we have wandered off to EOR. As usable for core business - keep.
7) UGC and GTL is the company expertise and where all resources should be directed. Unfortunately, what could have provided those resources is directed everywhere else.
8) Newcombers may help. If it is only wishful thinking that they are in it for some big UCG/GTL projects then we are probably stuffed.
9) Adani coal royalty is only real positive and the glue that has kept me on board this long.
As bitter a pill that it may be for PB to swallow, a decision should be made that conventional O&G is not our business, it is high risk, expensive and a silly pursuit when one has a real market edge that can make a lot of money. Linc should get out of the non-core businesses asap and pay down as much debt as possible. A CR would seem unavoidable to bridge the debt gap and provide working capital for UCG.
Back where we started long ago with a lot less money, a lot more shares and a lot of hard lessons learned (hopefully). Our competitiors have not been asleep - we cannot dawdle.
Linc could be (and should already be) a very profitable business with innovative technology backed by a healthy royalty stream while the real business gets going. Whether or not I have the intestinal fortitude to hang in a hope this is the process adopted is another matter. We also need directors on board able to keep PB focussed.
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