Well we are certainly in interesting times.I have been tossing...

Well we are certainly in interesting times.
I have been tossing this around in my head trying to get a grip of the next 12- 24 months. The market has certainly thrown a new dimension at us over the last few weeks.
As always, when hammered, I like to go over my homework and revisit my expectations. Be interested in your feedback.

I have broke this into 2 segments, the last is added for those who are not sure of the markets at the moment (that should be a lot of us).

Arafura has progressed steadily, the major risk of Nolans were:
- Metallurgical separation issues. Great headway has been made here by Bateman and Ansto. I am quite comforted that ANSTO appear to be right behind ARU and Nolans.
- Uranium 'contaminant', the real risk here was political. With the support of Fed Govt and NT Govt I really see very little issue here, the current economic dramas may in fact work in our favour in that Govts will shove things thru for employment and revenue alone. The recent decision by Feds to allow exports to India (perhaps not one of our major moral victories) certainly pushes the agenda forward very hard. Uranium mining is a go.
- Managerial, as Arafura has developed so (i feel) has managements strengths and understanding of the bigger picture. New players on the board and at office level are fully committed and Alistair Stephens deserves credit just for creating such a vibrant and cohesive team. The efforts these people are putting in are phenomenal, they are going very hard.
- Market's,
+-- The markets for REE's has become tighter and the investment markets are becoming more aware of this. The growth in Hybrids will not be stalled in my view, Toyota are absolutely committed to this for the long term and has forced a paradigm shift in the car industry; this will not be unwound. I have no doubt that Toyota, in their forecasting, have factored in market ups and downs.
+-- Phosphate demand continues to put pressure on supply and prices have reflected this, food and agriculture will not slow down for any speed bumps.
+-- Uranium, whilst spot prices have come down (and may continue) this market has not been filled and there will be good money made here. One of the perverse things to come out of tough times is that only those with real assets will hang around, I certainly would not be punting on exploration.

When it is all said and done the demand for Arafura's products will not be impacted on greatly, there has been no big oil finds and no other answers to the green house issues. If the global economy struggles the development of newer and cleaner fuels (hydrogen, clean coal... etc) will be stymied and the first generation clean items will need to be used longer (Hybrids, uranium etc).

- Finance, whilst always a risk for any venture, I feel we are about to see a tightening of funds.. however it will tighten at the correct end... wasteful money, cra.p floats etc. Good business will always get cash. JV partners will be competing as less developed projects now run the risk of not getting off the ground full stop. We also have enough cash and Mt Porter to get us thru for a decent period of time.

Where will the markets go from here? I have no idea but as an optimist at heart, I really don't see Armageddon.
The American market is certainly in flux, but people need to remember how much cash China is holding. The Chines Central Govt is highly aware that they are at a precipitous time in there development, it cant stop or they will face another revolution from the rural areas (they know their history). The stage is now set for Chinese interests to take a stronger toe hold on global system. It does not really matter what we think about it, but the flip side is that at least they have a long term vision that goes past the next election.
China can not afford a global meltdown.

As such, I am happy to ride the ups and downs and really see Arafura being one of the success stories over the next few years.

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This second bit is to put this stuff into context for people, especially new players.

Everyone on Hc is here for their own reasons, for me it is to bounce theories around, share experiences, and info. I feel it needs to be acknowledged that I am no investment guru just another person behind a Pc.
I invest for 2 reasons. Mainly, I have a wife and 2 kids and wish to create a secure future for them also I find it intellectually quite stimulating.
Financially we are quite stable as we both work (hard) and earn reasonable (not outlandish) incomes and also we have not over extended ourselves.
We live in a modest house in a modest area and live a pretty modest lifestyle.
Why am I telling you this?
The key benefit that this gives us is the ability to invest with a higher risk profile.
It is important that people do not invest outside their risk tolerance levels, whilst I am an ardent supporter of ARU (and some others) it is because it suits our profile and I am happy to live with the consequences.
So please, when reading posts always have this in mind and also know your real limits.
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Anyway on with the party..