Whitta, you have been with PAR for so very long.
You have endured years of it and it hasn't been easy...
Yeah the sci is good, the patients stories are forehead slapping brilliant...
but translation into our dear SP...well talk about inversely correlated...the better the science is, the more crushed we are.
This is the ultimate test. But luckily we aren't alone. There are a stack of examples.
Here is another example of drifting sideways for oh-so-long:
Thats Telix above in case it's a bit hard to read.
Yes its a pertinent question, why haven't the Big Pharma...Medium pharma, darn it ANY pharma taken an interest.
It's a question that is full of possible answers, some reasons could be:
1) Who are we, we have no revenue, what is Australia?
2) The Pharma market isn't what it used to be, it used to be that you have any signs of efficacy and you will get snapped up, earlier the better, even after a Phase 1. It's no longer the case.
3) What are we saying, we are an Aussie co. that have a drug that can defeat pain, better than opioids, has a safety profile better than cotton wool...AND we have DM connotations? Impossible...How many patient numbers then?
56 and 15? Yeah not enough..prove yourself in a P3 and then we will see.
It's me, not you?
It could also be a two way street...we need to sell ourselves also..I mean what's the point in accepting a $2 million upfront and poor royalty. We might as well wait for more proof in numbers and get even closer to NDA...then we will command...we won't have to bend over backwards and accept any ol' tiny deal.
Look, sometimes I get angry too, why haven't we had an offer already. Now it is time to make them pay. You didn't want to give us a good deal back then, now we are further long, you blighters (<insert stronger words here> ) will only have to pay more to get us now.
Whitta, its very easy to give up, sell and you are out...it's hard to get back in, not impossible but hard. not saying you are giving up, but others could possibly be thinking this.
Here is a quote:
"I feel no shame at being found still owning a share when the bottom of the market comes. I do not think it is the business, far less the duty, of an institutional or any other serious investor to be constantly considering whether he should cut and run on a falling market, or to feel himself open to blame if shares depreciate in his hands. I would go much further than that. I should say it is from time to time the duty of a serious investor to accept the depreciation of his holdings with equanimity and without reproaching himself".The above was written by one of the greatest investors, John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946).
What does it mean? It means shit happens and we aren't always going to have a 1:1 share price association with what's going on. Look back to
2019...
what stock was that? Yeah that was PAR!
...was that rationale? We went berzerko....you are going to get swings...specially when we don't have revenue are are at the mercy of traders and people selling us big and buying us big...
Look at today, a million shares transacted...if we were really going down the gurgler...with that volume in such a slow time for us, would our share price really only fall 1.5 cents?
I suspect accumulation. I haven't heard of Allianz shipping out of our books...I have heard rumours that others are buying and I KNOW some big boys and a couple of big girls that haven't sold a peep. In fact some of them are adding...(not advice of course).
The ironic part?
We are so close to greatness...
What is greatness? A confirmed P3...there is nothing more to prove after that. The FDA will soon deliberate over what PAR is proposing...once we get the green light...then we are done...we complete the P3 and that's all that is left.
Yeah maybe Im glass half full...but believe it or not Im a conservative holder, my average position is teeny usually...I go out and buy small parcels as I am convinced and understand the play better. I would love to have the sledgehammer approach but I would get less sleep at night if I did. Im something silly in terms of a multiple of my normal holding. This does not mean you should too by the way...I understand the principles of diversity and I wont be on the street if this collapses (Thank you Anchor Man - he said I can always sleep in one of his warehouses if it comes to that, at least for a few months).
We do need to watch this even more closely now....I fully agree.
I know the funding partners and BIG P (MIddle P) wont be far behind our milestones and our data and more than that our final trial...yes its hard to believe we are the only ones that know this but it is true. just ask random Spinal Surgeons, Docs, Physiotherapists and of course a number of brokers!...most will think we are just some other drug that's going to fail and has some random efficacy. Most have no idea what we are about and what the potential is.
The patient queues,the mass market are years behind...look at PME, look at NVIDIA...the uptake was drastically slow before they came to greatness. To this date both of those companies are STILL Undervalued in my view. Im reading reports of NVIDIA's potential and their CUDA chips and what they can do.
I hear of PME NOT EVEN ADDRESSING A COUPLE OF HOSPITALS IN ALL OF EUROPE YET and they hit $105 today.....with still masses of future potential (my views, not advice)....but PME are nothing before us.
They address MRI images in the cloud...we address PAIN here on earth.
..
What people will eventually pay to materially reduce pain and do that safely.
I'm waiting....
DYOR
(20min delay)