Robin Brumby form The Oz 30/12/13 sez:'GERMANY experiences a...

Robin Brumby form The Oz 30/12/13 sez:

'GERMANY experiences a sharp industrial slowdown and takes on debt of its embattled EU partners resulting in the DAX losing a third of its value. The Japanese government steps in to nationalise the country's largest electronics company after Sharp, Sony and Panasonic report huge losses. China stops buying gold and Spain defaults. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No.

That's the thing about Denmark's Saxo Bank and its annual Outrageous Predictions: they contain a grain of plausibility. Other predictions include large fluctuations in the euro, the yen and the Hong Kong dollar (the last being unpegged from the greenback and re-pegged to the yuan).

As Saxo chief economist Steen Jakobsen notes, it is not hard to make outrageous predictions given what he terms "heavy-handed manipulation by central banks". In such an environment, almost any movement outside standard variations is seen as "outrageous".

Considering what we have been through since 2007, investors could be forgiven for ruling out nothing down the track, outrageous or not.

For the first time since Pure Speculation's debut in 2006, this column is not dedicating its last appearance of the year to reporting predictions for the new one, partly because, for once, not many analysts have been prepared to stick their necks out and partly because your correspondent believes we may be headed into one of the more unpredictable years we've had for quite a while.

You never, ever know what's around the corner. In this space at the end of 2008 (and in the depths of the GFC), your columnist foretold doom ahead, suggesting that any junior resource company was just a gaping hole into which investors' money would quickly disappear, and advised (slightly tongue-in-cheek) not to invest in share placements or rights issues.

Yet by mid-2009 the party was again raging, if not quite so boisterously as in 2007, and commodities shot back from their lows. And there was no shortage of share placements.

However, a couple of those late-2008 nuggets of wisdom still apply: don't believe forecasts of commodity prices, and don't use your house as collateral for a margin loan for that high-risk, high-reward speculative share strategy you have in mind.

Other than that, dear reader, you're on your own as we set sail for more uncharted waters.'

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/my-best-prediction-for-new-year-anythings-possible/story-fnciihm9-1226791612812