Where will TIG be Oct 31st?, page-3

The Optiva Research Note is very general in nature and its only mention of coal prices were the rough
parameters already given by TIG for hard coking coal in its NPV.

Since we are not yet selling HCC, the report does little to cast any light on the current position of TIG.

So let me have a reasonable shot at the average FOB price for the 4 ship loads already shipped (announced) to refine above guesstimates on the thread head.

The best estimates that I can get is:

(a) Low CV thermal coal FOB $74 USD/ton washed.(Platts)
-say minus 25% unwashed = $55.5 USD ($70 AUD)

(b) High CV thermal coal FOB $85 USD/ton washed (Quandi)
-say minus 25% unwashed = $63.75 USD ($80 AUD)

(c) Semi Soft coking coal FOB $120 USD washed (Metal Bulletin)
-say minus 25% unwashed = $90 USD ($113 AUD)

Now let's average this/ton AUD FOB

-38.5K ton Low CV Thermal Coal x2 x $70 AUD/ton FOB = $5.39 mil AUD
-38.5K ton High CV Thermal Coal x 2 x $80 AUD/ton FOB = $6.16 mil AUD
-38.5K ton SS Coking Coal x 1 x $113 AUD/ton FOB = $4.35 mil AUD

Total revenue = $15.9 mil AUD.

Assumption that only 4 shipments will be made in 2017 (154K ton)*

Average $103 AUD/ton.

The delay in payments may account for TIG's much lower figure in forward estimate for Sept Qtr
in the June Qtr financial report.


IMO, 25% is a reasonable discount for ramp-up product. What do others think?

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* If we have 2 more shipments - 1 x low CV thermal & 1 x High CV thermal - by freeze-up then we could see
an additional $5.7 mil revenue for 2017.

This is all IMO only and investors should do their own research and seek professional advice before
making TIG investment decisions.