The Big 4 are most likely to be well informed on TIG's current...

The Big 4 are most likely to be well informed on TIG's current position and prospects to the end of Oct 2017 and
forward to June 2018. Mr Retail Market (that's you and I) , however, are not so sure that TIG will have enough funds to take it through to June 2018; hence the low volume/low SP now.

So, may I be presumptuous to venture what I consider is the best case scenario for TIG to the end of Oct 2017 and on to the end of the FY which is all IMO only and not to be construed as investment advice.

Rough maths !!!!!!

Inventory @ port @ 30st June:
-40.7 K ton Thermal low CV ............42%
-30.7K ton Thermal High CV...........31%
-27K ton Coking Coal semi-soft.......27%
-98.4K ton........................................100%

Total mined: 115.3 K ton
Therefore.......16.9K ton inventory @ mine 30th June
24/7/365 road, so no trucking bottleneck going forward I expect.

Now let's assume that the total inventory of 115.3K ton is a similar product mix to that at the port
so we have:
-48.4K ton Low CV Thermal
-35.7K ton high CV Thermal
-31.2K ton SS Coke

My assumption re production July to Sept 2017 is
July: 35K ton
Aug: 35K ton
Sept:50K ton (due to extra trucks & mining machines; this is the 600K p/a rate)
Oct: Nil in time for shipping.
Total shippable production 3rd Qtr 2017 = 120K ton

Let's assume that forward shipping to October will be in 38.5K lots
say:
-2x 38.5K ton Low CV T = 77K ton @ $50 USD/Ton FOB= $3.580 mil USD (balance
-2x 38.5 K ton High CV T=77K ton @ $75USD/ton FOB = $5.775 mil USD
-1x 38.5K ton SS Coke @ $110USD/ton FOB =$4.235 mil USD
(I am discounting the amount of low CV Thermal coal sold locally at mates rates)

Total Revenue: $13.59 mil USD or approx. @$16.98 mil AUD


IMO, production in September can be cherrypicked to achieve above shipable quantities/grades
unless , of course , if we can ship mixed loads.

So might you ask; is this enough to see the company through to 2018 first shipment late June 2018?

Well, once again, one has to make assumptions; this time on cash burn:
Sept Qtr: $3.5 mil (already announced)
Dec Qtr= $4.5 mil
MarQtr 2018= $4.5 mil
June Qtr 2018=$5 mil
Total cash burn June 2017-June 2018 = $17.5 mil AUD

Cash @ 30th June 2017= $5 mil
Revenue FY 2017-18 = $16.98 mil
Total funds =$21.98 mil AUD

Cash 30 June 2018...$3mil-$4 mil. AUD

Please keep in mind that this is an optimistic guesstimate and contains the best case scenario assumptions above and investors are advised to do their own research & DD before making any investment decision.

Unfortunately we do not have:
-$revenue for the 38,500 ton already shipped
-information on subsequent shipments (grade/amounts and $ estimates)
-whether split loads are possible (ie: half thermal/half coking etc etc)
-details of deal with Japanese trading house
-details of forward sales & timing
-an estimated time for last 2017 ship load ex port
-an update on production/trucking post last month's upgrade of truck fleet & mining plant.

No doubt, if you had serious skin in the game like the top 4, you would want to know this info & estimates
but, IMO, in the interim, the SP will dally daily due to limited info being publicly available.

Once we make it through to June 2018 (without a cheap buyout) we should then see the fundamentals kick-in
with a 600K/p/a rate, improved grades and massive margins. Surely by then the value of the coal in the ground
will be fed into the SP too.

no sweat....eh?

MM