yep, wont be a good day, today...
yep, blacks, not many other companies are in their best position ever like ncm is.....
as per 2008 results presso, group cash costs of $A261/ozt for 2008. 1.7m oz produced.
using that as a basis to calc 2009 profits (quick back of envelope calc):
assume $350 cash cost (up almost $100 per oz)
assume same production - 1.7m oz
assume realised sales gold price of $A950 ($A150 lees than current price)
so, profit = 950 less 350 = $A600 per oz
at 1.7m/oz of production thats $A1.02B profit for 2009
(and that using some fairly conservating assumptions re: costs going up $A100oz, gold price $150oz less than current price and same production rate as prior year)
pity its gold outlook and US$ gold price that drive NCM share price and not profit per se. (well, its a pity at the moment, if gold takes off i wont think its a pity at all).....
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