where's the interest wednesday, page-77

Hi Pisces

IMHO fairyland mid to long term - the deflationary forces of aging peak spenders (Dent et al) and contraction of private credit will drive everything but cash and possibly long term bonds down with it

Deflation has already begun in the US just not in the CPI & PPI figures yet - financial assets, tangible assets, commodities, wages...

Gold & Silver - on the fence and think we could see some more fireworks due to demand supply (China India) there but seriously don't think inflation is a serious threat - there were 2.3mill USD after QE2 and 40mill of private credit in US alone without government debt. That debt (money) is now leaving the system faster than Bernanke can print it much faster (look up fractional reserve banking - the mainstream view on this one is really off the Fed is not "printing money" all they are doing is creating reserves)

Long term Gold & Silver will revert to the mean alot lower than current prices

Medium to hard landing in China - massive aging population from here 8% growth unsustainable with predominantly export driven economy heavily reliant on US and European comsumers who are now aging on masse and retrenching debt

We have not seen the lows on world stock markets yet IMO and that still could be years off - See Japan's lost two decades

Australian property market is one of the few remaining bubbles in the world it is extremely vulnerable - I am so sure this will drop I have sold my house and am renting so have my money where my mouth is

Was probably a fair call to leave interest rates on hold yesterday as they are going to have to drop them much more and don't want to get stuck at a brick wall like US and Europe and perpetuate more fear

Could go on and on...

In saying that charts looking up short term (weeks) and could be good to test previous highs -

All the markets will go up and down and there will be times to profit from the four main classes - stocks (growth) bonds (deflation) precious metals (inflation) cash (recession) at different times but I think the larger framework we are working in is one of debt deflation for the next decade

That being said buy and hold is right off the table especially stocks IMHO