That's a very intelligent and insightful response Andrew ,and thanks for taking the time .In response to the issues you raise ,and I don't pretend to have your expertise but do have a few observations.
re deflaion/markets ...yes agree , how can anyone seriously believe in a miraculous recovery when they haven't even tried to tackle the issues of primary causation .The bell will toll but because no one wants it to happen and the authorities are aiding and abetting the recovery story we could muddle along for a long time
re gold/silver...I'm a bull because the market's so small ,everyone knows that the overall recovery story is actually poppycock , so there will be enough support for the insurance factor to keep the pot boiling there ,plus it's already in a true bull market and true bulls are hard to stop .But yes it is going to be very volatile and you need to exit before it blows up so the plan is to do that once the goldies look like they're going a lot higher which hasn't happenned yet
China ....anyone who thinks China is overtaking the west or that we're nto a new paradigm is dreamin'. China will at some stage have to seriously regroup after the totally unsustainable growth and as you say ageing population issues. It's guaranteed to blow up but they're just as good at covering up as the west so it might be years off
Lows in stock markets ....yes they're a comin' but unsure of the time or the route .Right now you need to be cautious but in the markets
Property ....sold my main residence myself .I've been tipping property to keel over for 10 years so I wouldn't label myself an authority but it's completely unsustainable in Sydney and Melbourne .Take note that people are starting to get laid off left right and centre which is the death knell .Having said that there's been a lot more interest in the inspections I've been to the last 3 weeks so I think we'll have one last hurrah
Interest rates ...who cares and who knows ,the market will determine where rates should be in this next stanza and as usual Stevens will probably have zigged when he should have zagged
Charts/markets ...too much optimism especially in the specs ,but I wouldn't touch a blue chip ,especially a bank with a barge pole .It's been a stockpickers market for some time and that will continue .Lot's of opportunity but buy and hold is as dead as the dead sea
Interesting discusion and would love to hear others' thoughts
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