It could get much worse. They could alter the face value. But...

It could get much worse. They could alter the face value. But getting ahead of ourselves. They wont get anywhere near 75%.

I'm growing on the idea that Coastal will accept the deal. Look at their foray into Alinta. Gained a major holding, owned more than FIRB allowed 15%. Talked big, but went down without a fight accepting 10c/sh which was the smallest of profits. Also left a virtual shell "Redbank" which Coastal became directors in.

Then you look at their foray into Billabong. Again they want 5% or more to gain some voting control. With Billabong they have said they are not Vultures and want to be part of the turn around story.

So they have shown a history of wanting control and a history of accepting offers even with minimal profit. You look at their average buy in which is now below $13. And coincedence that the offer is around $14. A modest profit.

And you look at the 14% leverage in PXUPA which has given them no control and will not change whilst the clause remains that PPX has ultimate control if they consider PXUPA to be acting detrimentally to PPX. And PPX have really laid out their ground work publicly on that matter. Particularly that full conversion would breach ASX listing rules and require PPX shareholder approval. Approval that wont be forthcoming when it means total loss of equity.

They have also made it plainly obvious that only a legal challenge can reverse that balance of power. Maybe Graham is willing to fight that battle. Maybe Coastal is? But when faced with a legal bill or a modest profit, Im starting to think PPX may have gained their support. Maybe with a side deal?

It's a weird offer if Coastal arent onside. Weird that they are still buying onmarket below $13. Weird that the premium was chosen just above their average. Weird that Coastal also have a small PPX holding. I suspect with the strong recent buying in PPX that Coastal may be a buyer. But still below the reportable 5%. Weird they are so quiet?

If they got around 5% PPX then converted 14% PXUPA, they would have a board seat. I dont know if they would then attempt too unwind the company and cash out or attempt a turnaround and possible recapitalisation.

I just feel a twist coming.