which upside road for shareholders, page-3

myronc,

Great post. You raise a lot of issues.

My comments/observations below;

1.I think the number of shares will be closer to 7bn once all are converted. But that doesn't take away from the overall value of your comments. Consolidation is inevitable, and you are right, it doesn't change the value of individuals holdings. My view, 1:100 and make us a 40c-60c stock. Now that sounds like a real company, while 4c-6c still sounds like a bucketshop to me.

2.Consolidation; sooner, the better in my opinion. A 50c stock can go to 49c, 48c, then 47c, then 46c and so on. A 0.5c stock can only go to 0.4c, then 0.3c, then 0.2c, then 0.1c, then.......I know that's all negative, but we might well be still up in the 80c-90c range if consolidation had happened a year or two ago.

3. The price might not get to $100, but there could be a split (reversal of the consolidation) on the way up. Citibank split back in the early part of 2000s, and has just done a consolidation (from around $4 to $40). MST might do that, so, using your example, the $100 consolidated share could be split in 10 and end up back as a $10 share.

4. Please explain why MST can't be worth $37B (or using my numbers $70B). Ok it's aiming high, but it could be. Some might say "tell 'em he's dreamin'", BUT a bookie would tell you, if there's a 0.05% chance of that happening, and a 99.95% chance of the company being bust, then that's a fair bet at a current price of 0.5c. That ignores all of the other possibilities. Would you say there was a 10% chance that your stock would be worth 10c and 90% of zero? If so, then the stock should be worth 1c.

Here's where it get funky, what if you include the other probabilities? Here's my crude probability set;

Outcome Probability
0 (bust)...10%
0.005......10%
0.01........20%
0.02........10%
0.05........10%
0.1..........10%
0.2..........10%
0.3..........10%
0.5..........5%
1.............4%
2.............0.9%
10...........0.1%

If, and it's a big "IF", I am right, then the value of Metalstorm is 16.25c. If you take out all of the outcomes greater than 5c, it's still worth 1.6c.

I think the probability of $0 has decreased dramitically in the last 2 days.

Needless to say, some of the 'new' investors in MST, including myself, view it in this way.

5. I think I've addressed this generally already.

6. This is THE critical point of your very good post. Happened a million times before. Some, more mature 'saviour' comes in and gives us shares in a much slower growing company. So we turn 0.5c into 2c VERY fast into a takeover, then our 2c (new shares) becomes worth 2.1c the next year, then 2.2c, then there's a market crash, 1.8c...and so on. Our dreams of many multiples are gone, even though the tech pays off as expected. The only way around that is DON'T SELL into a takeover. We gotta hope the Top 20 are thinking this way. Do you think they'd jump for 2c? I don't think so. 10c maybe yes, but 2c, not likely IMO. Remember, there's a whole bunch of options at 1.5c, many owned by the top 20. Would the holders be happy to have all of the crap we've been through to make a lousie half a cent? Not me, that's for sure.