while we are waiting

Junior oilers typically suffer long boring periods of no news punctuated with moments of share ecstasy or devastation. So while we wait I thought its interesting to see how that mythical price of $18.11 could be at least partially achieved.

Regarding Cua Lo we know the pre drill target is 3.9TCF based on 2011 2D seismic. We also know 3D seismic has since been run and found two additional zones at Cua Lo. This addition has never been quantified publically. Reality says the pre drill target ought to be 3.9TCF+++++

Broker targets(unrisked) for Cua Lo ranged from 80cps to 130cps (rounded) on the basis of 3.9TCF.

To get an indicative handle on just how much bigger Cua Lo maybe all going well Neon provide some extremely useful diagrams in their 20/5/2013 Block 105 Investor update.(http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130520/pdf/42fzjwjs1brrvt.pdf)

In particular slides labelled 'Primary Prospects" and "Hydrocarbon Play"

Both slides show Cua Lo relative to the main Dongfang structure which is 3.5TCF.

The first slide shows the areal coverage of both and that shows our target to be over twice DF. The second slide shows the depth relativity of DF gas verses the Neon targets. Again this is greater by a factor of two or more.

Now these diagrams won't be perfectly to scale and this is an overly simplified approach to assessing volumetrics but it is at least indicative of what could be instore for us as the reservoir(s) is ultimately assessed.

Could it be twice as big? could it be four times?

Whatever it turns out I bellieve if this is commercial it will trump the pre drill estimate of 3.9TCF by some large margin.