Hi Folks,
In this time of darkness and plague, I have ben quiet - not much to say that hasn't been said (if anything!) repeatedly. Having said that, some of the discussions are now receeding from memory they were that long ago. For all the promise, this has been a (very) slow rollercoaster with a couple of very steep ups and steeper downs - just look at the number of posts on the while we are waiting thread for proof of that.
I'm hoping the next up will come on news and reset the floor price way north of where we are now. Not really any point in putting a cents per share figure on that as it could be almost literaly anywhere between 10 cents and 50c and 50c to $1 once construction starts with some occasional bounces up (and down!) as things progress - given the history of this stock, this is near mindless speculation mind you!
I think 2023 is a realistic time-frame for fully pricing the stock :- licences this year; first plant 12 months after that, say Q2/3 2021, 2nd plant 6 months after that (early 2022), third plant not long after that. Strong sales and production experience / debottlenecking etc could see plants ramping up to nameplate capacity (3 x 2mtpa) by 2023. I don't see any dilution for funding in this as there seems to be money chasing solid projects along with offtake agrements and customer finance etc.
Choose your own assumptions, but mine are on the higher side alongside jnene and others. Look at announcements for numbers to plug into spreadsheets. Slice and dice 6mtpa against costs of getting sand to port and 450m shares. Just for fun, I have done this and see where you get at 3mtpa with $25 profit per tonne and a pe of 15 (I know profit per share and earnings per share are not the same thing but I'm just spitballing here). Double the numbers for 6mtpa. The higher $ projections look less fanciful when viewed in this light, at least to me.
I'm beginning to remember why I was excited!
GLTAH.
Keith.
PS: Will probably go quiet again until something happens
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