Lots of posts today about the present sp...I reckon we should take a peek at just WHO is about to control ECT...600m esi/esio of the expected 3 Bill = 20% CSI holding.
"Neil Youren, Director of Monash Capital made the statement “ECT’s expertise in commercialising technology is an excellent fit with Monash Capital’s experience in infrastructure projects and extensive global partnerships in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.”
Director Monash Capital Group Privately Held; 11-50 employees; Financial Services industry
January 2006 – Present (6 years 3 months) Melbourne Area, Australia
Global Head of Property Risk National Australia Bank Public Company; 10,001+ employees; NAB:AU; Banking industry
1997 – 2005 (8 years)
http://www.zoominfo.com/#!search/profile/person?personId=538805680&targetid=profile ____________________________________________ Neil oversaw $28 Billion for NAB for 8 years and was a senior exec at Mac Bank, Lend Lease...yet he wants to become big daddy to ECT! Love it.
I dont think the $4m let alone the $60m is going to be an issue!
"Our clients include Banks Institutional Investors Fund Managers State Governments Professional Associations BRW Rich 200 Investors Listed Corporations"
Monash is a lender to instos! And all we wanted was a common insto to be our CSI...Clap Clap ECT Team. Monash is in for more than the 2c oppies!
I can't think of a more suited CSI. Monash have the $$ in spades, cred galore, contacts galore, entrepreneur flair, Melb based etc...
Now...the dilution...
Seems we will end up with the 3 Bill esi/esio I was expecting....but with an extra mill in cash...nice.
Going by the half yearly, we have about $1.8m - $2m atm (inc the $405k/Menzies $210k to be voted on)...cash burn of about $250k/mth factored in.
Add the $4m = $5.8m
Minus the DFT $2.6m = $3.2m
Allow a float of $1m...that gives us $2.2m...ie about 12 months of working cap.
Now, think about what the new Team has accomplished in their 8 months so far. They inherited an awful mess compounded by the Europe, USA and worsening China situation that looked like causing GFC2.
Must admit - I thought we were doomed.
Of those 8 months - Dec-Jan are traditionally slow (boys were on the job 1st week of Jan...that was inspiring)
My point is - we will have 12 months of cash, we will have the DFT paid, we will have a CSI/module builder of the highest order, we will have the patent, there will a carbon price, there will be MoU's galore converting to binding deals on DFT completion around Oct, there will likely be AGL with 100% of LYP, we will have Tincom/KCoal/Chinese committing, there will likely be Indian Coldry/Matmor deals galore...and imo we will have a relatively stable Europe/USA/China...huge.
So with 12 months of working cap - in view of the above, I reckon the next 12 months are going to be exciting times.
I expect the sp to be min 8c by year end. With 3 Bill...thats a mcap of $240m...still classified as a microcap (definition of a microcap is less than $250m) Remember WEC had a mcap of around $1.2B on a 1mtpa dream in the back blocks of Indo. I reckon the 8c+ is safe providing the "process" is adhered too.
Assuming a conservative sp of 5c by next March - we have still dodged the dreaded dilution via the ability to bring in around $20m via oppie convertion programs.
Nice....hence my extrame satisfaction with todays coy/investor making news.
Regarding the number of shares/oppies on issue that the BM crew constantly cling onto as some sort of reason why Coldry/Matmor/Team wont succeed...has it entered their blinkered minds that ECT is like a Caterpillar (Mike will like this!) presently undergoing metamorphosis with the end result being a beautiful dividend paying butterfly?
I would expect the 3 Bill to shrink to around 500m via an inevitable consolidation that instos will appreciate....EGM or AGM?...has to happen.
As long as folks (long time holders) have averaged down at least some around the point 6ers...they are no doubt happy.
I expect Monash to introduce some amazing investors/partners once the GM confirms things. ECT will effectively be a Monash baby with all sorts of opportunities to be exploited. With Monash's entrepreneur streak, I reckon ECT can get some quick answers to ANY project dilemna. Monash have the "can do" mentality/ability. Like it alot.
The Jan newsletter indicated to me that ECT intend to take positions in the various SPV's coming...ie we will be not just royalty recivers, but actual % holders of the SPV. With Monash now as daddy - I can see monsterous believable implications here. WEC took around 50% positions - but didnt have the tech to follow through. ECT have the tech(s) and now the big daddy to make it real.
Do the figures on the initial $50-60m LV 60% moisture demo ~175 tonnes pa. It will likely be consumed locally, so no freight (mine to mouth shandy) I reckon that module alone will deliver around $10.5m pa PROFIT...so payback 5 years...nice...thats just the initial 175k demo plant...do the figures on the inevitable 2mtpa expansion that will immensely more profitable...
Obviously future modules in Vic would be about half that price....compelling stuff.
The BM crew also dont understand that there is PRESENT rail/port capacity to EXPORT about 4mtpa Coldry. Their silly arguments re port/rail are just that. Remember - the LV p/stations can burn up to 30% Coldry with ZERO modifications to their plants! Do the figures folks - imo it will be a case of Coldry DFT being proven and ALL the local p/stations will be burning shandies pronto....for all the carbon price reasons.
I dont see the need to stress about the Hastings/export situation (never have - I always viewed LY as a display centre...main game is Chindia re Coldry/Matmor) - I view the LYP demo (heading to 2mtpa) plant as the focus for now to demo Coldry and expand to supply shandies locally. By then the sp could be at ridiculous levels. Chindia awaits the DFT!!...and with the patent in the bag/AGL moving to 100% (why do that LOL)...Dr Makino must be excited.
"The Company has also agreed with Monash Capital to enter into good faith negotiations to conclude an agreement whereby Monash Capital will provide project financing for the construction of a single module Coldry Commercial Demonstration plant of 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes per annum capacity in the Latrobe Valley to prove the economics of Coldry production in Victoria."
Its tough business out there - massive gains will be made for a select elite few - the rest will be derided to history as "Beta as to opposed VHS" was. (Dolby is where I want us positioned) - there are REAL competing techs vying for the main games LY/Chindia - real deals with mega $$ commitments are being done. ECT need to follow the "process".
Encouraging too is the KCoal pres Dr Makino has signed on as our consultant for Japan/Korea. He is effectively "Dr Lignite" - highly esteemed in the lignite world inc LV.
The work is just starting - ECT management pre Oct need to NAIL MoU's and whatever in preparation for a highly likely successful DFT outcome. Lets not let this massive opportunity slip away.
Come DFT completion - sign em up boys!...with Matmor madness to follow.
Finally - Well Done Team ECT. Clap Clap. Directors/Staff (Adam etc...and the Matmor guru down at the plant Keith that everyone speaks so highly of).
I will go back to my hole now...very content that this Team will follow the obviously successful "in place process" to make ESI a divi paying butterfly!
ESI Price at posting:
1.3¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)