Just one point to note on the rationale behind the short.I...

Just one point to note on the rationale behind the short.

I believe the chance of approval of a phase 3 trial for a non-oncology trial is ~ 63% (ref below)
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845

A repurposed drug from phase 1 to approval has a 3 times greater chance of approval than a new drug (2nd paragraph of the introduction 10% to 30%) (ref below)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5694537/#:~:text=Further%2C%20repurposed%20drugs%20are%20generally,repurpose%20existing%20assets%20(5).

I think statistically this puts the chance of approval of a repurposed drug at ~ 85% from Phase 3 to approval.

When we liken this to the toss of a coin then the coin is quite markedly skewed against the short

So if you have a short worth $25M at today's prices that gives the upside of the short a value of 0.15 * 25M = This provides a probable gain of ~ 4M

An approved drug (assuming its value is 3B to 9B) means an increase of share price of 5 to 15 times from its current price. This would provide a probable loss of between
5 * 85% * 25M = ~ 100M to
15 * 85% * 25M = ~ 300M

I just wonder if this is a case of a trader's boss / board of directors not being aware of what the trader is up to.
It looks like an incredibly poor bet.

Happy for the statisticians to have their say on my maths