This article has similar points to 4 CORNERS last night and to...

This article has similar points to 4 CORNERS last night and to what is well known - China's over supply (by design) and weaker demand. They wish to saturate the supply from the critical minerals through to not low end cheap products as past but high end products - entering global markets - killing off their critical production - with of course Beijing's cheque book - subsidies.
This is being delt with by West to protect their critical industries and heritage even. The West are acutely aware of the Chinese strategy - over supply say EV's or Solar Panels at a discount well below West supply chain - shut down the West industries (or some of) whom can not compete - then once China has market control - they inflate their product prices. Not the cheap stuff anymore - the high end items.

ARU are insulated to a high degree. Yes there is the shift to Ex China supply compliance which is excellent - however my view is that requirement by debt providers to lock in what was originally 85% off take and is now a favorable possible 80%. Debt providers are completely satisfied with the 80% off take terms - that we retail are not privy to - the off take pricing must be very good indeed. And with more off take to follow re additional approx 28% of production with great competition for such - I am very positive that the majority of that substantial equity is raised - remember it is a target and with the overs on debt facility locked in - if terms are not favorable - ARU may only lock in 60% of the equity which would mean full utilization of the debt component. However I would anticipate ARU will achieve 80+% of equity but this is the flexibility I have mentioned previously and how they can use such.
ARU clearly does have power in negotiations - the ex China - ESG supply and that large debt component in place is a position of strength amongst others - projected supply deficits.

I see soon that Beijing's increased production quota's - low pricing will be largely irrelevant to ARU. Even the 20% spot ARU will hold back on supply if unlikely event in 5 years West end users do not pay a premium.

Investing is not for faint hearted - in RE's that goes to another due the many additional variables - global politics/policies being one of major interest.

Happy days all.