ARU (ASX) Who benefits from Low ARU SP?

Originally posted by chokdee: ↑

That's right Szalva and in raising more bring retail for the ride - not the continual lowball Insto offerings. This should have been done on the previous small raise also - in my view they have crafted this to suppress the SP for the huge equity piece and players.
The issue is when the board states they are highly aligned to share holder value. We retail are delighted to hear such. To then only realize and this is what needs to be understood - they are not currently aligned to retail share holder value - however currently Insto's and themselves yes indeed.

This may be hard to process - digest for many. It is a rort at expense of many long term holders whom have supported the company only to see the Insto's and some board fill their boots at a very low premium at such an advanced project development stage and the tactics employed to manipulate such are frustrating to even poor for one's not only current financial health but overall health if one allows it to. In my view where ever large monies are involved there is a level of underhanded tactics from a huge number of global players - cheating - etc and this is no truer than today on global stock markets and players. This is mid 2024 - from the exploitation of gov/asx compliance rules - tech available to the large Insto's that even release false reports - there is a myriad of tools employed for one reason - to make substantial monetary gains in any which way they can.
Manipulation is one part. I don't like it but I understand it is there and I try hard to understand in individual investments if it is occurring why. If I see it as positive manipulation I remain holding and confident of the future.
Shorting - one part of the above. Again I don't like it but I try and understand it - why? If I am correct with my observations (I like to follow it for the main reason being it can be a strong indicator to a company - critical progress - a given sector sentiment - etc that guides me in my long term view - decisions.
Managements/Boards. Well some are excellent - some are not and some are in between. But again in the case here of an explorer basically trying to become a miner /producer - it is very challenging for them - in the current sector downturn - in the current securing of finance to discover the substantial financing required to move to FID. I would much prefer to take a hit with some of above than for no positive FID and development to occur than they fail and fall over and lose the lot.

Why do I still hold and remain confident. Yes I did post I get agitated on missed previous critical timelines which were never ever achievable advised by board which then I stated it can be of concern - why such a big book build for CAPEX - FID - are they not confident in themselves to deliver on advised CAPEX - they are questions that all should ask themselves - then it can roll over to the advised $35kg and so on. BUT the one factor of most importance - is they are progressing FID and that can only come through the debt component which is closed and now the Insto/off take component - like it or not the board needs to walk a tightrope to achieve a positive outcome to announce positive FID - this can mean they have to massage some players - use their appointed 3 amigos to leverage the best outcome with that final available off take - spot product etc. The debt providers and insto's have far more details than we do. Th e secured debt closure is significant to that of Insto's closing support - neither will provide debt or equity without an abundance of excess confidence in what they have disclosed to them that we do not.
One has to understand - it is not about retail - we are not going to make the difference to Nolan's being developed. We could be a last equity component offer that may only see participation of 30-40 million if lucky. The big boys are the main game in town and our current investments in ARU come down to their participation. (Hell we can buy now at this reduced premium just as the couple of original Insto's are rather than wait for an offer down the track to participate at a higher premium on other released equity confirmation).

This is the life of investing in junior mining stocks. Many times I have exited before this point however I see more than enough to hold this for 5 years take some off the table - and more later on expansions.
This is no ordinary mine development - the CAPEX is very, very substantial - the TECH requirements enormous and the product demand/pricing are the three pillars. If debt and equity are in - I'm in and I'm not phased with shorting - low equity offers - it is frustrating - dilutive but research the Lynas journey the only peer to reference and see just how more favorable ARU are positioned.
Another one I held years ago Oxiana - Prominent Hill - S.A. CuAu mine early stages CAPEX aud1.15 billion - nervous times but in 2006 they entered production (what would 1.15 billion be todays currency for a well known copper production/processing start up). They did it - later rebranded to OZ MINERALS - CHINA state owned Min Metals tried to buy it years ago - knocked back by FED GOV on security - BHP bought it early 2023 for 9.6 billion.

There are times I have considered downsizing ARU hold - what is the risk level to my thresh hold) - what is al this noise - yes some validated but a lot is just venting). Yet my research and understanding - all the great posters here and info - combine to confirm to me ARU will certainly be the next Lynas or OZ MINERALS - just have to trust the process and the most critical of those 3 pillars I mentioned will be completed in coming months (there were 4 pillars however debt is in place) and the FID confirmed and 2 pillars remaining - then future growth.

These are my personal wafflings - do not buy or sell one single share on such.

Enjoy rest ow weekend all - take care. Life is good - even for an oldish, greying, chronic pain suffering individual in myself.

Expand

yes that’s the way it is. Unfortunately too many times retail get ripped of. Don’t know why I thought this time will be different….
came to OZ minerals via Zinifex. That was a nice ride…

(20min delay)
Last 16.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $383.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
16.5¢	16.5¢	16.0¢	$208.3K	1.276M

No.	Vol.	Price($)
27	1110205	0.160
78	4071037	0.155
75	3531308	0.150
38	1670887	0.145
24	2076629	0.140

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.165	563433	8
0.170	1048196	18
0.175	923423	14
0.180	1206379	19
0.185	950701	16

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