today was the lowest volume in a year.
We are at saturation point with daily volume depleting.
ever since Gina launched their bid there has been a large buyer in at 4.25c-4.5c
@HamburgerK posted these trades and tables showing some 29% of all trades since have been above the bid.
There are only these possibilities using the process of elimination as to who and why:-
- a Gina allied party (unlawful)
- FMG (no ASX notice issued so cant be)
- a FMG shareholding INSTO below 5% - possible
- twiggy - increasing his stake he held from 5c CR in 2016, no notices issued yet
- an independent INSTO who wants to block Gina & FMG - possible
- a third party bidder, no ASX notice over 5% issued yet and no indication of who or why they would
- John Hancock using his payouts from the Hancock trust cases - possible
- some other large investors who see fuiture value in AGO and want it to remain listed
- prior large AGO holders who are averaging down see AGO will remain listed and want to multibag it
- BGC and other contractors - unlikely
Whoever it is the motive is clear = deny Gina more shares and getting to over 80% and take a blocking stake in AGO preventing its delisting and forcing Gina to stay public & do deals with them or FMG.
Or they could be asking for 8c offmarket after the bid closes.
Whoever this buyer is we will find out once the Top 20 is issued post bid.
The signal this sends is that some large buyers or INSTOs are willing to stake $40M cash that AGO paper scrip is worth more than 4.25c-4.5c. that buyer is likely interested to buy after the bid also if anyone tries to dump which again doesnt look likely or to ramp the share price using that share clout for trading profits.
Another good reason to stay in and HOLD.
