@WoosterBrewsterFirstly let me just say I'm not a downramper; in...

@WoosterBrewster
Firstly let me just say I'm not a downramper; in fact my first purchase was in 2017 and I just bought more over the last 2 days in 2 portfolios.

With that disclosure, I also want to say that yes it's fine speculate what the appropriate value should be but all those companies you are comparing to are very different - Nitro & Dubber have a huge TAM, Serko is benefitting from a re-opening narrative and I believe they signed a deal with expedia and they will finally see some traction there; BTH is benefitting from remote salesteams....etc. If we then compare the last 12 mths with Livetiles, perhaps that may point out why the price is where it is: challenges closing deals in covid, the settlement that cost shareholders (rather than the founders), the anaemic ARR growth most of last year (not helped by FX), and then the share price falling significantly below the SPP which meant that LVT shareholders have a negative sentiment (compared to the other names where prices have risen even if they are bleeding cash).

I would say that at least to me, I think their core product may not offer a significant benefit over what microsoft offers (this is my lay person view - I asked this question a while ago, and no one seemed to be able to say LVT was a game changer) so that IMO is not going to offer any significant upside in the future. Why I hold and purchased was the Reach product (and you can see this is where the growth has come from) - think of all the workplaces where employees don't have/need an email, but a central tool to communicate would be hugely beneficial. Add the post covid environment of remote working, and I can see the need for employers wanting to keep employees engaged etc. The big challenge will be whether LVT can ramp up Reach sales quickly enough to offset any churn/loss in their core product while also trying to become cashflow neutral (or better positive). Huge risk, but at the current valuation, decent risk reward (valuation being 60m ARR vs 120m MC....cash of only 16m is a high risk, but I'm hoping mgmt realise how precarious things are given they cannot/should not raise money anywhere close to these levels)

I also see others here like @Superheat comparing LVT with FPH......unless you are talking about the opportunity cost, I think this is really a very flawed comparison. I own FPH, and even at the price difference (FPH ~5% off it's all time high, vs LVT close to price 5 years ago), my LVT allocation would be 25% of my FPH allocation........Each person will have a different risk perspective and tolerance, but IMO these are 2 very different companies from a risk perspective that deserves 2 very different allocations.

All the above IMO, but I do fear on the 1 hand people forgetting why they invested in LVT (what did you want to see 3-6-12 mths down the track apart from just share price) and thinking a 'low' price is a bargain - if ARR and cashflow does not pick up (and/or they have churn), this could easily go much lower.

Anyway, I hope LVT have a good 1H22 and we see improved growth in ARR, Cashflow etc and that will ultimately be reflected in the shareprice, but in the absence of any new information, the price is going to be irrational at times (both on the up & down sides)