RXM 0.00% 44.0¢ rex minerals limited

Regarding Hog's Ranch, let's not kid ourselves. Yes, I heard...

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    Regarding Hog's Ranch, let's not kid ourselves. Yes, I heard Richard say he used to work for WMC; and they paid a king's ransom, then abandoned the site a couple of years later. Finding it was like stumbling across gold a pirate buried years ago, and the map had been hiding in plain sight ever since. And his geologists couldn't believe what they were seeing when the results came through. That's the story.

    However, every small junior minor has a similar tale and can talk up their holding. I doubt Hog's Ranch would be much better or worse than most listed miners' projects. Just ask them. It sounds to me (and I don't have a lot of idea, so I am probably wrong) that Hog's Ranch is impressive, but not big enough (yet?) to stand above a crowd of similar sized discoveries. It is no DeGrey or Chalice. I feel like it could just as easily not get developed as to go ahead. Is it worth the current market cap of Rex, or even half of our MC? Probably. To the right buyer. Which is pretty darn good considering it's merely a side hustle to us. I can't see us having the focus, or money to develop it.

    The main game is, of course, Hillside. I've seen the map showing our leases on the Yorke Peninsula. It is almost the entire Peninsula. I don't know how we achieved that but it is a decent effort Jongerd's idea that the YP is actually our third leg (or even second leg if Hillside is divested) is astute.

    Like Quiono, I too have a nagging doubt about whether Hillside will go ahead.

    I hate watching Australia bat. Every ball I am thinking "He'll probably get out here" as the bowler is running in. Sometimes I am right and say "see, I damn well KNEW he would get out". When England bat, I find myself hoping for a wicket each ball. "He's going to edge this to the 'keeper. We'll get him this ball). It is far more enjoyable watching England bat. My point is, you can't be wrong (or right) all the time. If you have the right bowler and the field is in position, and it's the right delivery, you'll get your wicket. The stars align in your favour no matter how negative or positive you are. The facts are the facts. The project goes ahead because it is compelling, and the only obvious thing that can happen in the early innings of an inevitable copper bull market . (I hope Arsenic appreciates the cricket analogy).

    This project has been going on (and on, and on) since 2008. It feels like it's stale, however we don't know what is happening behind the scenes. We are also told on various websites that copper mines can easily take 15-20 years from discovery to first production. I keep telling myself how, if Hillside does go ahead, it's a bit like getting a university degree, then the government/unis put up prices dramatically and make it even harder for others to get one. "Good", you say to yourself. "It makes mine more valuable." We've done all the hard work with the permits and approvals. Anyone buying this project now is, like I have said before, effectively jumping in a time machine, going back, and saving themselves 15 years of work. They come in and put some engineering and infrastructure in place over the next couple of years, then boom, they are into production. We also have the knowledge / certainty that there won't be a sudden increase in production in the next few years. Anyone with a new development now is starting from scratch, and it's surely even harder now to get the approvals which we already have.

    But doubts, yeah, I've had a few.

    Assuming copper will be needed in record amounts and at record high prices, a project ready-to-go, in Australia, with reasonable grades, near power, roads and port, simply must either receive funding or be bought out. Stale or not. So for me, it's not just the resource which is valuable it's the stage we are at with the project which creates the value which I feel is not represented by the share price. Again, I am far from being an expert on the topic.

    I've been doing some research lately into a copper junior in another state which seems to be making great discoveries. I look at their impressive drilling results with high grades, and think "that's all well and good to have a potential Sandfire DeGrussa-type project, but you're probably 10 years away from being close to even thinking about producing any copper. At least a decade behind Rex". Most discoveries do not get developed for whatever reason. It's not just the resource that's valuable in my opinion, it's the years spent laboriously gathering information to apply for permits. That's the part which I think puts Hillside in a different category than any other junior. Even above the supposedly bigger Caravel project in WA which has only been going for a couple of years (and their 0.25% grades vs. our 0.50%). I simply don't see how their drilling, DFS, permitting, FID, etc. can be accelerated. Yet our market caps are almost identical (131m vs 139m) despite us having Hog's Ranch and being at a more advanced stage.
 
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