It's kind of normal to see this kind of death spiral when shareholders are being offered more shares at a big discount. Everyone (that was holding before the ex date) will be thinking, "I can sell now and buy back 15% cheaper", and they may be right.
Even worse, (in my mind) is that the SPP booklet allows oversubscriptions. They want $3M but can accept up to about $6M (eg 82M shares at 7.3c). 82M is a solid increase in SOI.
To get $3M they need 100 shareholders stumping up $30k. Beyond that, they'll probably accept some overs. Beyond about 200 shareholders, they will have to scale back. What's likely? Anyone know how many eligible shareholders there are? I'll be applying for mine and holding.
It will be a big overhang and take time to clear. Not everyone wants to hold an extra $30k for the long term and profit taking will cause the price to rise slowly. And there's all the placement and block trade shares at 10c out there too. I wouldn't expect it to break 10c without some good announcements.
To balance supply with demand, it really needs a fund manager or two to take a solid position at least the size of Bergen + VC sell downs. Or a competitor takeover. Wishful thinking, I know. But there's been a lot of turnover and we may yet see a significant holder notice in the wash up. GLTAH
(20min delay)