Here's a way of thinking about "market cap" in these kinds of...

Here's a way of thinking about "market cap" in these kinds of situations:

A. First in line is the Notes: $85m plus interest - they are debt until option to convert which may never happen

B. Next in line will be any remaining liabilities to get the operation to cash positive ongoing cash burn, plant, equipment, stripping etc: unknown. But new capital will only go in on good terms for the new capital.

C. Then comes existing shareholders with 666m shares

What Bibiani is worth fully operational, including A. plus funds from B. is the true "market cap"

What the shares are worth now depends on B., how much more needs to go in and what Bibiani will be worth when running.

If $100m needs to go in and Bibiani worth only $150m then the existing shares are as good as worthless now because the Notes have priority and will squeeze any value in existing shares out.

If only $20m more needs to go in and Bibiani fully operational is worth $200m then existing shares are worth $200m - $85m (Notes, ignoring interest) - $20m = $105m or about 16c per share. Great return buying at 6c now, if this is right.

So I estimate fair value somewhere between nothing and 16c per share depending on how much needs to go in and value of Bibiani fully operational.

Of course everyone has own views on value of what cash positive Bibiani is worth and what more needs to go in.

I dont see how only $20m more - just cash burn will eat this up. I don't see $200m for Bibiani with pog well down.

My personal guesstimates based on history and Prospectus is that fully operational Bibiani is worth closer to $150m than $200m and that at least $50m maybe more will be required. So $150m minus $85m (Notes, ignoring interest) minus $50m (new capital) = only $15m left for existing shareholders or 2.2c per share.

It's the priority and control of the Notes as debt in this situation that crushes the existing equity if significant more capital is needed.