Who knows what percentage Virax would get from a...

Who knows what percentage Virax would get from a Novartis/Transgene deal?

After heaps of research, I don't know.

And I doubt whether shareholders have ever been told.

But I suggest there are some who would/should know: They include:

. Chairmen Dr Wayne Millen of Virax and Phillipe Archinard of Transgene;

. IP adviser, Norton Rose Fulbright;

. Board-connected Otsana Capital;

. Retired administrator Lawrence Fitzgerald of Grant Thornton;

. The independent, anonymous IP reviewer and

. ANU/CSIRO, TG4010 originators/patent holders.

Let's do some sums.

Suppose Virax received a milestone payment of 1pc of $1 billion. That's $10m. Keep in mind the Creditors Trust is owed about $8.2m.

Suppose further that Virax received royalties of 1pc on annual North American sales of $300m-$400m. That would be $3m-$4m.

Virax could retain 75-80pc of this revenue. The rest would flow to ANU/CSIRO.

Of course, we could think of a number and double it - the royalty rates may be 2pc or more.

I gather CDY has recently negotiated royalties at the rate of 4pc.

As for a VHL valuation, I think it's still too early to make one.

Let's await release of the IP report.

Hopefully, this will include enough detail for shareholders to make informed estimates based on the value of IP, milestone fee/licensing provisions and resulting funds flow.

VHL may yet become a multi-bagger.