re: bta unchanged in us overnight Remember when two weeks ago,...

re: bta unchanged in us overnight Remember when two weeks ago, on the Friday BTA fell 52c to $1.74, it closed on its intraday low and people were saying it would collapse the following monday.

It instead rebounded strongly and hit the $2 mark on the Monday.

THis wont go any lower than $1.40.

When the share price was languishing at the 50c mark, you have to take note that Relenza had only a 1% market share.

Irrespective of whether the bird flu breaks out in its most devastating form or not, its market share will be greater than 1%. Many people didnt know what Relenza was a few months ago. The entire world almost do now.

The bird flu has been Relenza's greatest ever marketing tool. It has been promoted in a way that GSK were never able to do. Even if GSK marketed Relenza like they should have, there is no way they would have been successful as the media's promotion of Relenza.

Not only will Relenza's share go up but the market size will now become bigger. Government stokpiling of both Relenza and Tamiflu worldwide will ensure that the market will be many fold bigger than it once was.

Those who sold at 1.40 thinking they are going to get some at $1 will be in for a rude shock. BTA will rebound strongly.

And with pending mediation with GSK, a payout figure by GSK in excess of BTA' current market cap would not surprise. All the bird flu attention in the media lately has come at th best time for BTA going into the mediation. Reports that Tamiflu is resitant and that the WHO (worlsd health organisation) believe that Relenza is the better drug will only strengthen BTA's case. Doesnt matter how much GSK spend in legal costs, justice will prevail for BTA.

This will be back at $2 in no time

Cheers