CCU's fortunes lie 80% with the silver price. We are nearing critical support now at AUD$20/oz with the silver price. Looking at the long-term trend that goes back to 2005....
See chart below: http://s13.postimg.org/r2f1dm65h/Long_Term_Rising_Support_Trend_Line_AUD_Oz_2001.png
That CCU will hit nameplate I have no doubts. Looking at the production trend, it is at most 3~6 months away. Provided silver stays above $20, I believe they stand a chance.
I did call up and speak to Trevor Shard yesterday in an attempt to press for answers as to why there had been no announced action to resolve the cash-flow squeeze, and that I am angry and worried. The key point is that he has mentioned is that they have already started talks with CBA and Magna relating their situation. I hope that CBA and Magna see the same potential in CCU as I do to allow for amnesty (e.g. extend loan) during this transitionary period till nameplate is achieved. They have been improving production figures these past few months and warrant being given a chance to rebound.
For me, if in any month AUD/oz CLOSES below $20, I will raise the white flag - as that will be a big technical support breached and for me the signal that CCU is condemned . Until then, and as long as I continue seeing improvement in production, I shall keep on DCA'ing as planned.
GLTA.
CCU Price at posting:
7.3¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held