I think GSK and WHO have realised that they can't rely on vaccines to contain a deadly flu outbreak. I have my own conspiracy theory that the Swine Flu was deliberately used as a trail run for a "real" outbreak (the Brisbane A/Pope flu last year had a greater mortality rate..).
This practice run has shown that the only way to stop an outbreak is to saturate with anti-virals and that the need for vaccines is only for when all else fails... a lag time of 4-6 months is just not viable for containment. I don't think there is any overlap between GSK's Relenza & vaccine production, they are infact very complimentary.
Funny how anti-viral stockpiles were starting to "expire" around this time... great excuse to use them up since they were only going to go to waste/expire anyway...
If governments need to replenish antivirals very 2-3 years, GSK and BTA (esp. with LANI) can look forward to juicy future sale flows... even more so now that Tamiflu has been shown to be resistant to..
For me, BTA is a nice combination of cash flow & fat tail risk coverage. (same goes for cash flow positive gold stocks)
BTA Price at posting:
$1.21 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
