BTA 0.00% 57.0¢ biota holdings limited

Full Quote” Witty also told reporters he expects the company's...

  1. 830 Posts.
    Full Quote” Witty also told reporters he expects the company's vaccine for the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, or swine flu, to be available from 'September onwards,' noting that GlaxoSmithKline has received orders of around 150 million doses of the vaccine from governments around the world.
    'It's going to be a significant scale operation for GSK, and it's going to be a very important part of our operations for the rest of the year,' he said without giving sales forecasts”. End of quote
    Cornelius, you sure had selectively ripped the articles. You knew well that Witty was referring to the swine flu vaccines that is going to be a significant scale operation for GSK.
    As to Relenza, Quote: “The firm is also ramping up production for relenza, a drug that can be used to treat the H1N1 flu, and will be capable of producing about 60 million packs a year in eight weeks”.
    There is no need to mislead newbies on HC through misquoting and ripping articles. Here’s one source of the same article in full: http://www.beurs.nl/nieuws/artikel.php?id=294102&taal=US
    Those who are very excited about the yet-to-be approved new delivery system (and implied 160 million courses p.a production) need to understand the time taken for a new delivery system to receive regulatory authorities and who owns the patent for the delivery system. They should also take note that GSK’s sudden interests in a new delivery system is proof of BTA’s legal suit against GSK for their contractual failure to research a new delivery system. In 2005, (refer 10/03/05 announcement) BTA joint-venture with Aerogen to develop their micro-pump nebuliser technology to deliver anti-viral. This I believe is currently used for LANI.
    There were many unconfirmed rumours (from believable sources) at the early stage of the legal case, GSK was willing to return the relenza license. Even an average CEO can see what that means to BTA now. There is no word other than idiot to describe Peter Cook. After settling the case for $20m, the idiot crowed what a great deal it was, blamed the financial loss on Peter Molloy the former CEO for launching the case; then went on to be rewarded with more than 433,000 options after shareholders had voted down the option resolution.
    GSK has a conflict of interest in marketing GSK Pandemic vaccines and relenza as both products compete for the pandemic spending of Governments. In fact, during the Avian flu relenza’s share of the antiviral purchases was less than 5%, yet GSK was forced to increase production to about 30 million courses (from memory). Recently the Australian government orders for Relenza take Australian stockpile to 1/3. Because of Tamiflu resistance to the recent northern hemisphere winter H1N1 flu strain and the hallucinations in young people in Japan from Tamiflu, many health experts are calling their governments to increase the relenza proportion of the stockpile to as high as 50%. Thus if GSK is marketing relenza “with best effort” the demand would be many times more than the planned 60 million courses per annum. Peter Cook is the biggest idiot for refusing the $100m settlement offer. After incurring more than $30m in legal fees, the idiot settled for $20m. Why is the idiot not going out to question how GSK managed to pre-sell hundreds of millions of pandemic vaccines (a product not yet available) and only plan to increase relenza production to 60 million courses per annum.
    Do not despair. Not withstanding the idiots running BTA, in the short term, Relenza demand will drive the company. 60 million packs per annum is still very significant and the current price has not fully value this in. On 30 Jan, BTA announced to the ASX the 10.8 million courses in the UK order is worth approximately $18m in royalties. There fore 60 million p.a is approximately $100m in annual royalties. At the closing sp of $1.21 x 175 million shares, the market capitalisation is only $212 million
 
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