who will liquidation hurt most - us or them

It was made abundantly clear in all the formal information provided to shareholders that in a liquidation scenario we would not get a return - there would be nothing left for us. This was made very plain for us - but what wasn't made plain is how much YAG and Toll stand to lose in a liquidation scenario

Just to explain my absence last few days - we have been busy during the day but I've had a few nights away from laptop. Been enjoying a few sherbs with the wife and friends down the pub and at tea - and am sick of having to ask the mod's to pull my posts the morning after letting lose on HC when sozzelled

However - having spent a few days looking back at things and digging out information I now have a bit of a problem with the information provided to shareholders in the Notice of Meeting and Explanatory Notes and the apparent failure to inform us in a balanced way wwhat would happen in a liquidation scenario - so that we can make our own minds up who might fear it the most

While the notes, including the letter from YAG and the "Expert Opinion" made it plain that in a liquidation shareholders stand to lose everything - ie get no return, what was not made so plain is how much YAG and Toll stand to lose if the company is liquidated.

For my uneducated viewpoint it is rather unfair to make it so plain and repeat it numerous times that in liquidation shareholders will get no return. That makes a whisper in the ear that a little bit is better than nothing perhaps carry a tad more weight than it ought if a more balanced view were presented that included how much YAG and Toll (or rather his company Coffee house) would lose in the same situation

By their own admission in the letter to shareholders which FH forwarded to everyone, YAG say they are owed $35.5 million and Toll's company - Coffee House - is owed $37.8 million (AUD)

Now, if you cast your mind back to the report released by Ferrier Hodgson on Christmas Eve 2009 which recommended that creditors approve a variation to the Deed of Company Arrangement(if you cant remember exactly what it contained you can download it from the FH site - it is the only one dated 24 December 2009)About half way thru that report you will find a table showing expected returns to unsecured creditors under the DOCA -and expected returns to unsecured creditors under liquidation. YAG and Toll are dealt with as unsecured creditors.

That table shows specifically that in a liquidation scenario YAG and Toll's company would only get a return of .32 cents in the dollar.

If those figures are correct and one would hardly doubt them since they were presented under the hand of FH that means in a liquidation scenario both stand to lose 68% of their investment.

In other words - just to make it plain since no one else seems inclined to make it plain - using thier own figures:

YA Global stands to lose over $24 Million,and

Toll stands to lose nearly $26 Million.

That's a lot of money in anyones speak. Don't trust me - because I am very poor at maths and I may not be using the most up to date figures so go check for yourself.

But if I lost $24 million on a $35.5 million investment or $26 million from a $37.8 million investment I dont think my wife would be too happy

(Proportionally I probably lost similar in truth and she wasnt happy - but she is supportive and taken on extra shifts to help out till we recover)

But it begs the question - who should be more fearful of liquidation - us or YAG and Toll

Have no doubt - YAG will know the numbers they need to make up to get the original poxy deal thru or a slightly improved one so have no doubt they will be on the phones as we speak. All they have to do is swing one major holder and they might get to pull it off.

So if you know any shareholder who has not made contact with us it is vital you get them on side with us. It is also vital you keep your email address up to date with us - if we can vote in bloc we may be surprised at what we can achieve - hold fast