. The betting markets are throwing up an interesting indicator. Trump has firmed to $1.70, implying about a 60% chance of winning. Biden's out to $5.50 with Gary Newsom at $9. Biden is the assumed candidate, but Newsom is given a realistic chance of winning (1 in 8). What does that say about Newsom's chances if he's the candidate? Newsom vs Trump, what's the betting? Trump definitely drifts from $1.70 given Newsom must be assumed a stronger candidate than Trump. I suspect if Newsom becomes the confirmed Democrat candidate, he also becomes favourite for the presidency. If he seriously wants the job and is willing to pressure Biden to stand aside, Newsom might have been the winner from the debate.
