wholesale electricity prices, page-7

Thanks for that link Jukes. Yes, SA is the go.

A quick look at thst site indicates that the average daily prices for May so far for base and peak in SA have been around $30 or under, so yes that seems low and a bit strange. Maybe a seasonal thing? Maybe the balmy weather? Reduced demand perhaps?

In any case, the best figure to use is probably the average monthly price for last financial year for SA, which was $59.19. An estimate of $60 is therefore a nice round figure for us.

This means on average PAX could expect a return of $45 (REC price) + $60 (wholesale price) = $105 per MWHr generated.

Given they have published projected generation costs for the 59 MW base case scenario of $83 per MWhr (includes cost of finance), PAX can expect a return of 105 - 83 = $22 per MWhr.

If we say the power is generated for 360 days per annum (allows a few days down time), 24 hours per day, then the earnings per annum are:

360d x 24hr x $22/MWhr x 59MW = approx $11 million.

Total shares on issue: 307,139,487

SP at a PE of 10 = $110 million / 307,139,487 = approx 36 cents per share.

This assumes no extra dilution, does not take into account the options, possible rising price of electricity, taxes, debt (if any) nor a future potential carbon tax or ETS.

Back of a fag packet, as I said. Anyone else with a better financial brain than me (not hard!), please weigh in with your contributions. :-)

Cheers, BB.