The latest PWT speculation appeared in the Fin Review yesterday and again today. Previously, analysts have commented upon PWT's intentions, as has Michael Sainsbury in The Australian.
For my own part, several of my own HC pieces posted yesterday - by Arthur and by myself - and dating from 2001, 2002 and 2003, also reflected upon the possibility of PWT becoming more (or less) involved.
As for the Fin Review, yesterday, it noted that: 1) UEC was too expensive for Optus (ie: did not represent value for money); and 2) UEC was too awkward for PWT, as ALN did not want to swap scrip in one relatively illiquid stock for scrip in another relatively illiquid stock.
Yesterday, the Fin hinted that a possible stock placement could be coming up.
Today, the Fin commented that Macquarie was scouting around prospects /institutions to gauge interest in taking a possible placement of ALN's shares in UEC (effectively ending the aggregation argument altogether).
As for UEC, the Fin yesterday also commented that UEC's normalised EBITDA was likely to be closer to the mid-20s in 2004 than to management's mooted $30M.
Looking more closely at UEC, it could be argued that despite an operational improvement in FY03, owner's earnings (defined by reference to Buffet) actually deteriorated, from -$16.5M in FY02 to -$18.5M in FY03.
For instance, in FY02, NPAT was -$5.0M (excluding abnormals), depreciation was $10.5M and CAPEX was $22M. Added together, this made for owner's earnings of -$16.5M.
As for FY03, the situation was one of NPAT of $11.7 (excluding abnormals), depreciation of $13.5M and CAPEX of $43.7M, making for a Buffet-styled result of -$18.5M.
That's reflective of a deterioration on an improving revenue profile, and reflects just how capital impacting much of UEC's ongoing revenue /business gains have been.
