Its not uneducated Brick - but whats wrong with your idea is...

Its not uneducated Brick - but whats wrong with your idea is that - like a lot of other people - you are making the mistake of thinking that US POG = opposite USD

it doesnt.

but because the USD is a factor - and because USD was so oversold due to QES - when US got back on its feets we had 4 years of USD rising = USD gold falling

so a a lot of people make the mistake of thinking thats how it always works

in fact USD gold for much of its history has actually risen with USD.

about 30-40% of gold price is due to the USD effect.

ultimately what will drive or drop gold price isnt USD - its global (and yes US) gdp (as worlds largest growth driver and creater of gdp in other countries) deflation/inflation, systemic risk etc

gold is a currency. and its basically the anti currency vs fiat bills. so at extreme levels gold price runs high when value backing and ultimately trust in fiat money runs low.

all the little squiggles as usd aud trise and fall are rfeflected in gold price and so a lot of people get lost in that noise

but what you want to focus on is global inflation and deflation risks and the health or otherwise of global gdp growth. if there's a big gap between gdp growth and the inflation rate - in either direction - its generally good for the gold price trend