Sorry Doc, been quite busy and haven't had time to post. I've personally assumed that our chances are more like 70% of finding commercial oil in Samo, 25% of finding non commercial hydrocarbons and 5% dry. The scenario of non commercial to me would be simply that the traps are no good and not capturing the oil. I think a completely dry well is unlikeliest due to the proximity of a producing hydrocarbon system so close by (proof is SNE).
This is just my personal opinion and look forward to the rotating truth detector towards the end of the year.
If the traps are no good but hydrocarbons found, I would expect a new drill location to be planned.
Odds are we will find something on our first drill Imo.
Why 11c !, page-83
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