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Why $20 predictions are wrong., page-2

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    Cheers Aqua the article supports something I have been saying for a while now and that the current oversupply was not created by SA but by the stunning success in the last few years of unconventinal oil from North America and that is supported by data. That increase in supply over the last 4-6 years has been meet by an increase in consumption more or less and consumption is showing no sign of stopping , slowing down at times perhaps but still increasing. The lower oil price is doing no favours for alternatives either.

    Meantime as world production of crude outside of North America has been much the same for years and with shale declining there is vitually no way for the world to increase production going forward for more than brief period.
    There are some that say 2015 will be the year that world production finally tops out, I'm in that camp myself, however it will only be known in hindsight, shale has extended that peak for the last 4 years but there is nothing on the horizon that I can see to replace it..certainly not conventional crude it's hit a brick wall..

    Now that the shale production has started its decline it not only removes the approx. I mill Bopd per year added in recent years it will now be compounded by the amount removed per year as it declines.

    The oil price can be moved anywhere on a short term basis but supply and demand eventualy rules...

    Cheers Whisky
 
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