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Why 6 Months?, page-41

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Reaper11

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31/03/20

01:16

Post #: 43786169
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Originally posted by Treefern: ↑

The 'at least six months' is a reference to the end of winter. There is some opinion in the northern hemisphere (I honestly haven't seen enough NH views to say I'd call it a consensus) that we are going to have some seasonal troubles as we move into our winter in the southern hemisphere.

All of the nations that have gone down the plughole in recent weeks are coming out of their winter and are expecting an improvement in the conditions of the playing field, if nothing else. Australia, however, is about to head into our colder months and with I guess a regular flu season, and other winter ailments doing the rounds on top of Covid-19, it would be quite stupid to try the foot-off-the-break thing in the middle of it.

My guess is that they are expecting it to linger ominously throughout the winter months, and in the second half of September or October they are optimistically hopeful of trying their first easing of the pedal.

For those reasons I think the most critical period in how badly this whole eco/medico crisis hits us is in the December quarter. If we can't release the breaks in that period without it flaring up badly, then I think they will hunker down and look to Sept 2021 to be the endpoint.

That's my stab, I suppose. But I'm pretty sure the constant six month reference is designed to allow them to keep their foot on the throat of this thing during flu season, etc.

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There's definitely a view around that it's primarily a cold weather disease. Time will tell.

Reaper
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