I think we need to distinguish between potential deals and potential revenue over the coming 12 months.
Deals or perhaps arrangements should be announced, however they may not result in revenue.
The share price should get a push on the deals being announced but if the revenue doesn't come then we will find ourselves short of cash again and forced to go back for another CR.
At this stage the company has said that the pilot plant will be used for internal testing purposes and supply to third parties for testing, so I don't see much revenue being generated from it until it production goes into an actual battery under mass production and for actual sale. So at this stage pilot plant sales should be largely discounted until we hear otherwise. Hopefully we will at some stage (b4 year end) go into a battery say in the consumer electronics area but that's not a given
I think we will need the first round of options - and I'd prefer to have those as potential funding rather than have to go back to the market.
If the options are struck down by shareholders that may also make any future CR harder to place going forward and mean an even bigger discount or even more generous freebies thrown in to attract the Sophisticated Investors as the current shareholders have only contributed less than $2m over the last two raises. I'm opposed to the 2nd round of options as we hopefully shouldn't need them by that stage but alas they both go hand in hand.
Below is a rather crude cashflow based on where we are now assuming nothing too much happens in the way of revenue.
It assumes lower cash outflow of $2.6m a quarter with no litigation costs or plant build - 250k a month inflow for the current grant being drawn down and 125k growing to 450k in quarterly sales (just note 1000 litres of Anteo sales would bring in 400k a quarter - and we have only sold 150 litres over the last 6 months).
Everybody will have a different opinion on this - but this I did to get an idea for my own purposes of how things may track.
One thing to consider is the 4C requires us to have 2 quarters of cash left or an explanation on how we will continue to fund the business if we don't. I see us potentially struggling with this by the September quarter ... although we should in fact have enough cash to last to March 2025 with the R&D credit - so I think we will need further funding and the options as an explanation if required for the 4C
| Mar24 Cash Bal | 1618 |
|---|
| 1 | Jun Qtr Outflow | -2600 |
|---|
| 2 | Placement | 5000 |
|---|
| 3 | SPP | 1400 |
|---|
| 4 | Grant usage | 250 |
|---|
| 5 | Sales | 125 |
|---|
| 6 | Jun24 Cash Bal | 5793 |
|---|
| 7 | Sep Qtr Outflow | -2600 |
|---|
| 8 | Grant usage | 250 |
|---|
| 9 | Sales | 125 |
|---|
| 10 | Sep24 Cash Bal | 3568 |
|---|
| 11 | Dec Qtr Outflow | -2600 |
|---|
| 12 | Grant usage | 250 |
|---|
| 13 | Sales | 150 |
|---|
| 14 | R&D | 3000 |
|---|
| 15 | Dec24 Cash Bal | 4368 |
|---|
| 16 | Mar Qtr Outflow | -3250 |
|---|
| 17 | Grant usage | 250 |
|---|
| 18 | Sales | 450 |
|---|
| 19 | Mar25 Cash Bal | 1818 |
|---|
| 20 | Jun Qtr Outflow | -3100 |
|---|
| 21 | Grant usage | 250 |
|---|
| 22 | Sales | 450 |
|---|
| 23 | Jun25 Cash Bal | -582 |
|---|
(20min delay)
