I am totally aware of the simplest of equations. If you can consistently pick value in your bets, you WILL win.
What is value? Picking a bet where the probability of winning is greater than the probability of losing. Simple as that. The trick is - how do you do that?
One truism is that you CAN'T do it on numbers games. You cannot beat random chance mathematicly calculable odds if the 'house' takes a cut of each wager.
Other forms .... well skill can enter the equation, but skill can only be demonstrated by a prolonged period of winning. Therein lies the problem.
The above answers your criticism. But that is not what I was on about.
I was talking about investing in (gambling on) a company and continually whinging about its performance. If you don't think you are getting value (as described above), then get out, if you think you are getting value, then stop whinging and stay in.
I stick with 'stupidity personified'. In this game we have all got to back our own judgement and not that of others and in doing so accept the consequences, be they good or bad.
ADO Price at posting:
0.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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