The discussion centred around the metals antimony and tin, which...

The discussion centred around the metals antimony and tin, which are becoming increasingly significant in industrial and technological applications, although they have not traditionally received the same level of attention as gold, silver, or copper. Here's a more detailed breakdown of the key points for each metal:

Antimony

Demand and Usage

• Fire Retardants: Historically, around 90% of antimony was used in fire retardants, particularly in suits and materials for fire prevention. This application was dominant in the early 2000s.
• Semiconductors and Solar Panels: In recent years, antimony has gained importance in high-tech sectors, becoming critical for manufacturing semiconductors and solar panels. The demand for antimony is thus heavily linked to the growing sectors of renewable energy and electronics.
• Other Uses: It is also used as a hardener in bullets and in the semiconductor production process, which has seen an increase due to the rapid advancement in technologies like artificial intelligence (AI).

Supply Dynamics

• Global Production: China is the largest producer of antimony, accounting for nearly 100,000 tonnes annually in the past, which has now reduced to 40,000 tonnes. The other significant producers include Tajikistan and Russia. This concentrated supply presents risks, particularly due to geopolitical tensions with Western countries.
• US Supply Issues: The US has no current domestic production of antimony after the closure of a mine in Montana within the last two years. This highlights a potential supply chain vulnerability for Western markets dependent on antimony.
• Supply Challenges: China has recently begun limiting antimony exports, adding pressure to global supply chains. Exploration projects are expected to emerge, but the metal typically does not drive project economics by itself and is often a by-product of gold mining, especially in China.

Price Trends and Market Prospects

• Price Increase: The price of antimony has risen significantly, from about $6,000 per tonne in 2020 to nearly $20,000 per tonne recently. This is largely driven by increased demand for solar panels, semiconductors, and fire retardants.
• Exploration Prospects: Due to the recent price spike, more antimony exploration projects are anticipated, especially in regions like Australia. However, since antimony is usually a by-product, its production will depend on the viability of extracting other metals like gold. The ASX (Australian Securities Exchange) and TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) markets are beginning to respond to this demand, though there haven't been standout primary antimony projects so far.
• Production Challenges: Unlike metals like cobalt, which can be extracted relatively easily from nickel or copper deposits, antimony extraction does not lend itself well to rapid increases in production. Therefore, the market may face prolonged higher prices due to the difficulty of ramping up supply.

Tin

Demand and Usage

• Electronics and Soldering: Tin is crucial for the electronics industry. It serves as a solder, acting as the "glue" in electric circuits, used in batteries, motherboards, and various electronic components. This makes tin a fundamental part of the energy transition and the electronics revolution.
• Solar Panels: Similar to antimony, the demand for tin is also linked to the solar panel industry, as it is used in the soldering process for solar cells.
• Critical Role in Energy Transition: Tin’s importance has grown significantly in the context of the energy transition, where it is used to create essential connections in electronic devices that underpin renewable energy systems.

Supply Dynamics

• Global Production: Tin production is largely concentrated in China and Indonesia. Over half of the world's refining capacity for tin is based in China, while Indonesia is a major producer, responsible for around 80% of global nickel production. This geographic concentration again poses risks, particularly given the strategic interests in the metal.
• Production Outside China: There is some tin production in Africa, notably through the Alphamin project in the Congo. However, the geopolitical instability of the region poses a significant risk to the global tin supply chain. While the project itself is high-grade and productive, the unstable conditions create an ongoing risk for consistent supply.

Price Trends and Market Prospects

• Price Volatility: Tin prices have experienced considerable volatility over the past two years. Prices surged, then dropped, and now appear to be stabilising and potentially moving upwards again. The volatility can be attributed to fluctuating demand and geopolitical influences.
• Exploration and Investment: Exploration projects are in progress, with notable activities in places like Australia and Germany, but their viability, especially in Europe, is uncertain due to permitting challenges. Investors looking to gain exposure to tin can also do so through trading tin contracts, which provides a liquid method of investment.
• Supply Chain Challenges: Like antimony, ramping up tin production is not straightforward. Although there are projects such as Alphamin in Africa, there are significant challenges associated with expanding the supply chain, including geopolitical risks and logistical difficulties in unstable regions.

Outlook and Investment Considerations

• Exploration Projects: For both metals, investors are keeping an eye on emerging projects that could help meet growing demand, but currently, there is a scarcity of projects that specifically focus on either tin or antimony. Most current projects see these metals as by-products rather than primary drivers.
• Price-Driven Supply Response: Historically, high prices have prompted the market to bring hidden or secondary deposits to light, similar to what happened with cobalt. However, for both tin and antimony, the nature of the metals and their extraction processes suggests that a rapid supply response may not be feasible, which could lead to sustained higher prices.
• Geopolitical Factors: A recurring theme in the supply dynamics of both metals is the dominance of China and the potential risks this presents in the context of Western supply chains. With increasing focus on deglobalisation and the desire for secure supply chains in critical industries, there is a growing need for new projects in stable jurisdictions like North America and Australia.

Overall, the discussion highlighted the increasing significance of antimony and tin as critical metals for technological advancement and the energy transition, emphasising the challenges related to their supply chains, geopolitical risks, and the need for secure production sources outside of China and unstable regions like the Congo. With prices rising due to increased demand and limited supply, there is potential for investment opportunities in emerging exploration projects, albeit with significant risks and challenges associated with the production and market stability of these minor metals.