We have taken a look at Newcrest against our macro quantitative analysis suite to map the mathematically probably market space due in particular to the announcement of further QE measures in the US overnight.
The chart shows a visual representation of the model level outputs and there are notes and observations listed on there to make things easier for those who like to keep analysis filed rather than in their bookmark folder.
This stock is retesting the lower boundary of it's marco market space - in english this is extremely oversold.
Current R:R to the long side in NCM has 26% or so downside to the Market Risk Line vs 40%+ to the central tendency of our model. CT is certainly not a cap but rather normally provides a target zone for large money funds to start distributing risk into on longs taken from model base, i.e you will normally at least see some near term selling around this area or a strong retest before materially higher.
If you have any Q's let me know and anyone who has a strong fundamental grasp of current NCM positioning I would love to hear from you. I haven't investigated the state of the hedging book as yet but am trying to ascertain drivers for the systemic weakness across the gold miners globally (bit of a generalization but it can't be denied at least in some part).
We are considering a portfolio allocation into NCM however no open positions are held at this stage.
Analysis here: http://www.iqms.info/?p=2078
Enjoy your weekend.
D.
NCM Price at posting:
$28.36 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Not Held
