No, the No vote is based on the assessment that while the Macquarie offer is a reasonably fair value estimate for the existing fields and the existing 2P, there is significant upside not captured in the bid from things like:
- Favourable changes to the pipeline regulation regime significantly reducing CTP's transport costs
- Continued upward pressure on gas prices beyond what was assumed in the IER (based on AEMO forecasts)
- Application of new tight gas drilling technology (laterals etc) in the Stairway sands at Mereenie
- Exploration and appraisal of large new targets like PV Deep, Ooraminna, and regional targets which are not value-captured by the CVNs.
That view is obviously shared by Macquarie who didn't get where they are by bidding 20c for companies that are only worth 20c.
Of course, the No vote risks financial loss (particularly with the need to raise capital as you rightly pointed out), but investors in CTP are well aware of that. People don't buy into CTP for 5% dividends, they buy in as a speculative investment in the hope of a multi-bagger, so a more cavalier attitude to the Mac bid is understandable than, say, investors in a defensive stock.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 462354 | 5.0¢ |
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2 | 220428 | 0.049 |
2 | 1180647 | 0.048 |
1 | 200000 | 0.047 |
1 | 100000 | 0.046 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.055 | 450000 | 1 |
0.058 | 172431 | 1 |
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