analysis of vpe announcement OK, it's the 'we got to the bottom,...

analysis of vpe announcement OK, it's the 'we got to the bottom, and this is what we found announcement'.

First of all, 20% porosity.

Secondly, 2m of definite pay, plus maybe 3m of further pay.

Thirdly, no water issues.

Fourthly, possibility of an onlap strat play.

Fifthly, they are estimating up to 6 mmbo of oil.

OK, porosity ... I nailed that at 20%. 20% isnt appalling, but it's not good, either.

Pay is thin ... real thin. Check the various other producing wells, and you'll see that very few commercial wells have a single layer of 2-5m of pay.

No water is very good news. Water is a b!tch, because oil floats on it, and that means your nice sandstone is half/whatever full of water, rather than being completely full of oil.

Nearby onlap plays ... sure. It's probably worth doing 3D over Rookwood and environs, to see what it shakes out.

6mmbo of oil. I dont think so. Not with 5m of pay and 20% porosity. If that crunches into 6mmbo, I'd love to see what they calculated their initial 12mmbo on.

We'll see how the extended production test shakes out ... see what sort of flow rate Rookwood can sustain.

Note that they mentioned 'additional development drilling' ... I think we'll see Rookwood-2 and -3 in fairly short order (ie by Christmas).

Then we'll see how much jet pumps etc can boost production.

I'd still lighten up now, but I've been saying that since 60 cents :)

Ian Whitchurch