Nothing of new contracts has been factored in. That's the upside. Australia no matter what will need to invest in marine defence both to patrol and to act as a deterrent. Australia will probably will wait to annouce to coincide with the US. Hence, when that annoucement comes there will be a major appreciation in the share price. The China threat is too large to ignore and submarines under water although important are simply not a sufficient deterrent. Imagine they announced this investment without the China threat (to the extent today) and without quantitative easing with money printing investing in defence is much easier as you don't need to fund the investment upfront.
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