Why Austal is a value packed share, page-84

The last US ship builds will start this year (LCS 34 and 36). Although there is likely to be another EPF the US yard had throughput of about $1 bill a year. That means that without a significant contract win almost immediately, 2022 will see some "valley of death" issues - basically retrenchment of skilled labour (all the people that work on the initial stages of the build etc. and dramatic slowdown of throughput which will adversely impact future years productivity even if contracts can be won in 2022 and beyond.

The same problems are being faced in the Philippines. No new contracts. This is why ASB should be bribing the hell out of Govt officials to win that OPV contract. Without it (and with no ferry contracts for years I expect), this shipyard will have to wind down.

I expect Vietnam to close up after the current build finishes.

There is a concerted attack on ASB with the media leaks on the corruption investigation of the Cape class payments by Border Force on top of the still open investigations re the loss announcement a few years ago. Attacks like this suggest the bigger defence contractors are successfully using some political clout against ASB.

So in summary:

Australian OPV - loss
US Future frigate - loss
Philippine OPV - likely loss
Sustainment and service contracts - no big wins in more than 12 months

What is left for ASB in the medium term? Not much I suspect. It will be a very tough ride from here.