With all due respect I don't think your shelf research is a good measure of share price. BAL have been very conservative in their forecasts and have a wide range of other opportunities in other countries that have not been captured in financial reporting. You've also got to consider how over-sold it currently is and how much questionable negative sentiment has been factored into the share price before discounting it further on your observations. BAL looks to have a very bright future with or without China. No reason to expect that the delay in approval will last too much longer and then I believe we will see a rapid and significant rise from current prices.
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