AHAHAH! Positive Announcement 12c! Want to provide any credibility to your post? Calculating NPV usually involves cash flows as well, how does that factor into your probability outcomes? Probably more importantly, you're forgetting the initial outflow (so that your cynical view is actually -0.05c) Also what's your time frame? 1 year? If it's that long then you need to factor in the multitude of possibilities of other announcements.
Even a probability of 10% for a 480% price rise is FAR FAR too high. If it really was that high I'd be buying buying buying buying! Sell my house and put it in OBJ.
Well I'm still buying, just not for these reasons. You just don't do NPV calculations in the speculation market. At the end of the day, I still believe in the fundamentals of this company and they are just as strong as when I first bought these shares. Patience.
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