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Originally posted by BWinter
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After the first full day of trading since the CR in RAP, I thought I would put some notes down about pricing of shares after a CR. Generally the market doesn't like CR's especially when they are at a discount to the prevailing share price. As others have correctly noted the share price after a CR often approaches the price of the CR. There are a couple of reasons for that which I wont discuss here but instead focus on what the share price "should" do. In RAP's case immediately prior to the TH there were 659 shares at $0.27 giving a market cap of $178M (I'm using the NabTrade / Comsec view of the world which I think does not take into account some classes of security). The CR raised $7.5M at a price of $0.22 (i.e. 34M more shares into the pool). I'm going to assume that 0.27 is the best estimate of what the shares were worth immediately prior to the TH. Now after the CR, there will be 693M shares and RAP will have an additional $7.5M on their balance sheet (less costs, which I ignore). In theory, the new enterprise value should be $178 + $7.5 M = $185.5M and so the new share price "should" be 26.75. Even if you were to take the view that RAP management would squander that $7.5M so the enterprise value should remain the same $178M, the new share price after the CR "should" be $178M / 693 = 25.7
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except that you didn't take into account the hype that has been incorporated into the SP. thus, the SP has been watered down much more today and probably will continue so.
